COFCO Futures palm short supply is still easing strategy

COFCO Futures: short supply is still loose palm strategy clients view the latest market of palm oil 1701 contract short strategy COFCO Futures Research Institute analysis, integrated multiple factors, palm oil 1701 contract objective market outlook is still down space, the specific reasons are as follows: first, the origin, the production cycle continues, the yield increased less than expected positive Malaysia reflected in the price of palm oil in September, the supply side is still loose. Figure 1: Malaysian palm oil production monthly seasonal                           Figure 2: Malaysia palm oil yield monthly cumulative year-on-year data source: COFCO Futures Institute this year production supply rhythm, affected by the El Nino La Nina cycle, origin in 15 in the 4 quarter of the 2 quarter -16 years experienced heavy losses, to determine the basic annual production of palm oil in 2016 Malaysia fact. The contraction in production supply pushed up the decline in inventory levels, palm oil pricing levels have been raised. Judging from the current price range, palm oil prices have been fully traded on the fundamentals of the status quo. From this year’s seasonal production, although the yield of Malay is lower than last year and the average level, but the seasonal pattern is still in line with the production cycle. The recovery of the late production still continues. The pressure of the late supply will still be reflected in the shift. From the Malay monthly cumulative production of palm oil last year, production schedule before the first half of last year compared with the backward is chased by the weather pattern, the long-term supply of palm oil recovery is still the objective, and the short term, the September increase probability is still large. Two, demand recovery by inhibiting the spread, will usher in the late season seasonal Figure 3: Malay palm oil monthly export seasonal                             Figure 4: China palm oil monthly import data source: COFCO Futures Institute of international soybean Brown spreads continued to remain low in the annual run producer of palm oil production background, in recent months, palm oil consumption spread was inhibited in the first half of the year. Demand for the country’s inventory handling in the 3 quarter after the superposition of the holiday season to open up the emergence of the emergence of seasonal recovery export. After the sharp rebound in palm oil prices, we believe that with this wave of stocking after the end of the demand side is difficult to reproduce the highlights. From the seasonal point of view, the 4 quarter of palm oil consumption ushered in the off-season, the stock pressure will appear again. Price surge will reflect the demand side pressure. From China’s palm oil imports, the domestic supply of tension in the early trading is expected to ease in September. From the customs data show that in July imports of 330 thousand tons of palm oil, an increase of 40%. Arrive from the expected, August estimated 400 thousand tons, 430 thousand tons in September. Low level of domestic stocks will be difficult to maintain in the latter. Therefore, comprehensive analysis.相关的主题文章:

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